US President Donald Trump on Wednesday slapped an additional 25 per cent tariff on goods coming from India as penalty for New Delhi's continued buying of Russian oil.
Uttar Pradesh's leading export hubs are reeling under the impact of a steep 50 per cent tariff imposed by the US on Indian imports, with exporters warning of job losses, stalled orders and shrinking market access. Industry leaders from Noida, Kanpur and Varanasi said the tariff has put years of painstaking market-building at risk, even as protests and demonstrations erupted in several districts last week.
The Indian rupee, swaying through multiple headwinds, tiding over global trade disruptions and massive foreign fund outlfows, is unlikely to arrest its descent until tariff impact overhangs, notwithstanding robust domestic macroeconomic tailwinds. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which sees the rupee's depreciation as a silver bullet to offset the tariff shock, expects the currency to find its stable course once India reaches a trade deal with its largest trading partner, the US.
Reliance Industries Ltd has consistently remained compliant with international sanctions and is expected to adhere to upcoming measures on Russian oil, analysts said, estimating that oil sourced from Russia contributes just 2.1 per cent to its consolidated EBITDA. Reliance operates the world's largest single location refining complex, with more than half of the capacity exclusively dedicated for exports.
The government has cut windfall profit tax on export of diesel and ATF to their lowest while also reducing the levy on domestically-produced crude in line with softening international oil prices, according to an official order. The levy on crude oil produced by companies such as Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has been cut to Rs 4,350 per tonne from Rs 5,050 per tonne, the order dated February 15 said. Crude oil pumped out of the ground and from below the seabed is refined and converted into fuels like petrol, diesel and aviation turbine fuel (ATF).
The rupee breached 90-levels against the greenback for the first time on Wednesday, falling 6 paise to 90.02 in early trade, as banks kept buying US dollars at higher levels and FII outflows continued.
The latest decision of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, commonly known as Opec+, to boost output is being seen as an attempt to regain market share lost to the US, Brazil, and other oil producers, who have been increasing production recently.
The trade relationship between India and the United States has been strained by the imposition of 25% tariff by the US on Indian goods.
The new strategy is being planned to guard against disruption in supplies from its biggest sources in West Asia -- Iraq and Syria -- as they are caught in problems relating to Islamic State movement.
US President Donald Trump has said that India should not be "dumping" rice into the United States market and he will "take care" of it, while stressing that tariffs will solve the "problem" easily.
The Indian economy is likely to grow at 7.4 per cent in 2025-26, up from 6.5 per cent in the previous fiscal, mainly on account of better performance of manufacturing and services sectors, as per the government data released on Wednesday.
'The biggest point of contention is market access for US agricultural and dairy products.'
The rupee recovered 55 paise from its all-time low level to close at 90.38 against the US dollar after a volatile trade on Wednesday, amid suspected aggressive central bank intervention.
Putin argued that European countries are putting forward demands related to the conflict that Russia cannot accept. He further accused Europe of obstructing initiatives by the United States and President Donald Trump to pursue a negotiated settlement.
The rupee plunged 26 paise to an all-time low of 90.75 against the US dollar in intra-day trade on Monday, weighed down by uncertainty over an India-US trade deal and persistent foreign fund outflows.
India and Russia are poised to sign multiple agreements to bolster cooperation in various sectors, including trade and healthcare, during Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to New Delhi. Discussions will also address the Ukraine conflict and efforts to increase Indian exports to Russia.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar defends India's purchase of Russian oil, stating it is not the largest purchaser and that the US had previously supported such actions to stabilize energy markets. He also addresses concerns about tariffs and trade relations with the US.
Merchandise exports to the US jumped 23.5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to $8.3 billion in June, even as India's overall outbound shipments witnessed contraction during the month, according to the data released by the commerce department on Tuesday. The increase in outbound shipments to the US was largely driven by the rush among exporters to utilise America's pause on its plans to impose country-specific reciprocal tariffs.
"India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for much of the Oil purchased, selling it on the Open Market for big profits," Trump said in a social media post on Monday.
Representatives Deborah Ross of North Carolina, Marc Veasey of Texas and Raja Krishnamoorthi of Illinois introduced the resolution on Friday in the House of Representatives to terminate Trump's national emergency authorising tariffs of up to 50 per cent on imports from India, helping to restore Congress' constitutional authority over trade.
Little over 1 million barrels were exported to India in February, 794,200 barrels were exported in March and none at all in January.
India's annual oil import bill could rise by $9-11 billion if the country is compelled to move away from Russian crude in response to US threats of additional tariffs or penalties on Indian exports, analysts said. India, the world's third-largest oil consumer and importer, has reaped significant benefits by swiftly substituting market-priced oil with discounted Russian crude following Western sanctions on Moscow after its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Putin's State visit will centre on fixing the huge India-Russia trade imbalance, with both sides pushing to lower duties, ease non-tariff barriers, and seal a landmark mobility pact to send more Indian workers to Russia.
The first phase of the proposed India-US bilateral trade agreement (BTA) is 'nearing closure' and would address the hefty 50 per cent tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Indian goods, in addition to resolving America's market access issues, a government official said on Monday.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi will host Russian President Vladimir Putin for a private dinner and summit, focusing on defence, trade, and geopolitical issues, including the Ukraine conflict and the impact of US sanctions.
On the table are additional batches of S-400 surface-to-air missile systems from Russia, which India used with immense success during Operation Sindoor. India could buy at least two squadrons of Su-57 fighter jets plus joint production of S-500 air defence systems.
Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in New Delhi for a two-day visit focused on strengthening ties with India, including defense cooperation and trade, amidst a changing geopolitical landscape.
United States representative Sydney Kamlager-Dove while talking about the famous car selfie of Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Russian President Vladimir Putin said that it spoke a thousand words.
Gor underlined that President Trump has a "deep friendship" with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and that is something that is unique.
'There are very few issues and a political call needs to be taken about some of them.'
After registering a positive growth for two months, India's exports slipped into negative territory again, contracting 2.17 per cent year-on-year to $38.73 billion in May due to a fall in global petroleum prices, while trade deficit narrowed at $21.88 billion during the month.
The Trump administration has sanctioned entities and individuals from India involved in sales of Iran's petroleum and petroleum products, saying the funds from this trade support Tehran's regional terrorist proxies and procure weapons systems that are a direct threat to the US.
So far this year, the rupee has fallen by 4.2 per cent, the worst among its Asian peers.
Notwithstanding global headwinds, the Indian economy saw further momentum in October on the back of goods and services tax (GST) rate rationalisation and festival spending, as indicated by high-frequency indicators, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) monthly State of the Economy report said.
'What we are willing to do is definitely going to depend on what the Indian government wants to do.'
Amid the political push and pull, the Centre's decision to allow sugar exports and remove the 50 per cent duty on molasses exports has rekindled hope in the industry that more relief may follow.
India and Russia have solidified a five-year plan to enhance their economic and trade partnership, while also addressing the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the threat of terrorism.
The Russians have termed Putin's visit to India, his first to this country since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, as 'Druzhba Dosti', which means 'friendship' in Russian and Hindi respectively.
From just 0.2 per cent before the Russia-Ukraine war to now accounting for 35-40 per cent of total crude imports, India's reliance on Russian oil has surged -- drawing fresh scrutiny with US President Donald Trump announcing a penalty on top of a 25 per cent tariff, or tax, on all goods going to the US.
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